We’ve been seen for the past few days (weeks) a new hope in the ongoing negotiations for a lasting Peace Agreement in Afghanistan. Should the negotiators (both parts) be able to overtake their differences, it would be a major achievement in that turmoil part of the World. However, let us not forget that Afghanistan still lives what could be defined as a Civil War, that has been ongoing for several decades, and the modus operandi of those populations has adjusted to that (sad) reality. There should be no doubts that it is a Civil War we are taking about; because:
The Taliban constituted an opposition group, with a political leadership properly structure in exilium in Pakistan. With a shadow Government (with ministers, regional governors, etc.) transmitting instructions to their followers on the ground.
– The Taliban did declare officially that there was a state of war between them and the Government of Afghanistan;
– The Taliban had a system of recruitment, training and maintenance of a permanent core of fully armed fighters;
– The conflict was using non-conventional tactics and was being fought inside exclusively the borders of Afghanistan;
– It was a long lasting conflict;
– The Afghan (secret) Police reported (2014) over 3 000 insurgency groups active in the country;
– It had “high intensity” because:
a. It provoked more than 1 000 fatal victims per year, in which far more than 5% of the casualties were made by the weaker faction;
b. It managed to drag the presence of fighting International Forces.
However, although there was a civil war ongoing, in many parts of the country the combats were not constant (hence the non-conventional tactics). There were periods of time when people could go around in their business;
Afghanistan was severely destroyed by decades of conflict, which opened space for all sort of international entities to congregate in the country. There were hundreds of NGOs dedicated to all sort of matters (even sport), trying to help the Afghanis. There were International Organizations of all sort (NATO, EU, World Bank, ICRC, practically all programs and agencies of the United Nations family, OSCE, etc.). There were embassies and consulates of all the major countries, with strong staff implementation on the ground and bilateral development programs; etc. etc.;
The Afghan territory is bigger than the Iberian Peninsula (653 000 square kilometers), with extremely different geography landscapes, ranging from deserts to forests, mountains of Hindukush (beginning of Himalaya system) and flat plains, dry areas and wild rivers; hence the distribution of the international community was wide spread, pending on their interest. In fact, Afghanistan occupies 0,44% of the overall land mass of Hearth, ranking of place nr. 41 of the Worlds, countries and territories;
The Afghani population had a very low level of scholarship; only 19% of the people could read and write;
Religion and cultural heritage had a great importance in the Afghan life. Their family education of the (fundamentalist) view of the Koran made it possible for radicalization of young educated people. These radicalize youngsters were infiltrated among the Governmental and international structures and became a major issue in the so called “Green on Blue” attacks. These were Afghanis that we used to trust and which suddenly turned their weapon towards their international comrades/instructors and opened fire, killing whoever was around.
The presence of high numbers of International staffs, introduced yet another issue in the country – organized crime and resentment toward the locals that were employed and had foreigner salaries. Not only were they subject of envy, they were “targets” of extortion. Many times were heard stories of interpreters that had members of their family kidnaped for a ransom, live threatening, illegal taxation, etc.
All things taken into account, the Peace Process that is being negotiating will be nothing short of extremely difficult, and the International Community should be ready to support it, in order to last.
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